4% drop in inflation pressure in June enabled Georgian Central Bank
to make its monetary policy more easygoing and forecast the inflation
rate decrease below the 8% target level at the beginning of next year.
Economic analysts thumb up the central bank’s decision though they find
it impossible to hit the inflation target rate this year.
The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) continues monetary policy
easing-up that started last month; it lowered its Main Policy Rate
(refinancing rate) by 25 basic points to 7.5% on August 17, 2011 for the
second time. According to the NBG, in the recent months inflation
showed faster decrease than it was expected and can possibly decrease
even more. Presumably, by the end of this year the inflation will fall
below the target level [8%] and remain low in the first half of the next
year. However, experts are in a skeptical mood.
Consumer Price Index decreased by 1.5% in July, 2011 compared to the
previous month. The annual inflation rate stands at 8.5%. The share of
food remains high in the annual rate of inflation and amounts to 6.7%.
The core inflation net of food and energy decreased further to 0.03% in
the month of June. The inflation in service sector is also low and
stands at 1.2%.
As soon as the inflation pressure eased in Georgia from the May’s
14.3% to 10% in June the NBG was found apt to undertake more liberal
monetary policy. It slightly lowered the refinancing rate from 8% to
7.75% on July 20, 2011 [for the first time during the past six months]
and almost halved requirements for commercial banks on financial
reserves in order to boost the sector to attract as well as disburse
long-term credits.
According to the NBG, the reserve requirements on long-term
borrowings in national and foreign currency [increased to 10% and 15%
respectively early this year after inflation pressure got acuter]
exempts over one-year borrowings in national currency and over 2-year
borrowings in foreign currency. Moreover the reserve requirement reduced
to 5 % on borrowings in foreign currency with maturity from 1 to 2
years. As an aftermath Georgian commercial banks are expected to have
about extra GEL 100 million financial resources and supposed to become
more active in business crediting.
The Consumer Price Index decrease by 4 % in June, the downwardly
going oil price tendency at international market as well as removal of
the Russian and Ukrainian bans on wheat export made the NBG to forecast
that the inflation can possibly decrease below the target level (8%) at
the beginning of next year.
The influence of exogenous factors, that kept inflation high during
the year, is gradually fading away. Consequently, a sharp decrease in
inflation is expected in the third quarter, the NBG predicted.
Meantime European Central Bank made stronger monetary policy and
warned of higher inflation risks looming in prospect in July
irrespective the international market trends cutting prices on oil and
food product. The rate did not change in August. Based on simple logic
Georgia that by more than 80% depends on imported product [including 80%
of wheat and almost 100% of fuel] has less ground to be optimistic on
account of the upcoming inflation pressure than the EU.
The NBG explained to Georgian Journal that exogenic factors
influencing inflation differ in EU and Georgia. The latter suffered
seriously last year due to restriction on Russian, Ukrainian and Kazakh
wheat export making key bulk suppliers to Georgia. Georgia had to
replace them by farther markets that affected the yet increased wheat
prices by bigger transportation and logistics costs. Moreover, the EU
has milder and Georgia stronger monetary policy before that changed now
as far as the EU could not bottom out economic recession in 2010 while
Georgia had a significant economic growth.
Georgian economic analysts appear skeptical on Georgian statistics.
They doubt that consumer prices reduced by 4% in June as far as prices
on essential food like bread, butter, sugar as well as fuel did not
decrease in fact. Moreover, increased prices on transportation [almost
doubled recently] and big communal expenses making about 10-15% of
household incomes put bigger question marks over the authenticity of
official figures. The single thing that cheapened is fruit and
vegetables due to seasonal effect but sugar prices increased on the
other hand thanks to similar effect.
According to Levan Kalandadze, an economic analyst, price slumps at
international market do not reflect in Georgia as far as inflation
expectation that is one of the most important factors of price-making
policy, is high here and importers/businessmen hate cutting prices down
on products. He does not expect the inflation pressure to fall to the
targeted 8% this year. Neither does Nodar Khaduri, another economic
analyst. Both approve the NBG policy as reasonable but find the
one-digit inflation scarcely available this year.
Source: www.georgianjournal.ge
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